Red TVS on AE.  Mena ob is 64/61, and Hot Springs is 70/56.  The Oden and Sims areas need to take shelter immediately.

I cannot emphasize this enough.  The rotation is incredible on this cell and has been very persistent.  It is in a favorable environment for intense tornadoes and is heading right for Kerrville.  TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY!

I need not say anymore. Please, just pray.

The Effingham County GA/Jasper County SC cell from a few minutes ago.

Right after moving near Stillwell, GA, this cell developed an enhanced reflectivity signature over its couplet. The radar is slicing it at 1200ft AGL, so this is not at all a good sign. Pray for the best.

GAC103-SCC053-160230-
/O.CON.KCHS.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-080316T0230Z/
EFFINGHAM GA-JASPER SC-
946 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2008

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
JASPER AND SOUTHERN EFFINGHAM COUNTIES…

AT 943 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EBENEZER…OR
ABOUT 9 MILES EAST OF SPRINGFIELD…MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

AT 943 PM EDT…TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO
5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLYO.

SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE…
HARDEEVILLE…JASPER…PURYSBURGH…SWITZERLAND…EBENEZER…
RINCON…SPRINGFIELD AND STILLWELL.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO…THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE
IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO…TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

EDIT: Latest scan is +68/-30 at 1286ft AGL.

That is an extremely intense couplet at ~1500ft on KCLX radar in Effingham County, GA. There is a tornado warning for this cell. Many tornadoes have been reported today, with several injuries and fatalities. The threat will diminish as the cells shift offshore during the next several hours.

Major tornado outbreak is ongoing across GA and SC.  Many reports of severe damage have come in during the day.  Multiple supercells are in place from Charleston, SC, to Warner Robins, GA.  With SBCAPE of 1000-1500J/kg and 0-1km SRH of 400-650m^2/s^2, the threat for long-tracked, violent tornadoes will continue.

This supercell is near the Padre Island National Seashore in Kieberg County, TX. The situation in TX today is a little more intense than first expected. 50kt of deep-layer shear is in place across an environment of 150-250m**2s**-2 0-1km SRH and 1000-1500J/kg SBCAPE. A few supercells have formed, and there have been unconfirmed reports of tornadoes. More of the same can be expected through the afternoon hours before the front pushes through.

This intensifying supercell was moving in the general direction to pass SE of McComb. One to the north produced significant damage near Liberty, MS. This is a very dangerous evolving situation.

Public Severe Weather Analysis
Monday, March 3, 2008
2130z | 3:30 PM CST

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move East Northeast. The area outline should be monitored for continued convective activity. This line has a history of producing showers and thunderstorms, some severe, producing heavy rain, gusty winds, hail, and having the potential to produce tornadoes. Should atmospheric conditions continue to destabilize, thunderstorms will likely become more organized and severe in nature.

We will be monitoring this situation continously. Stay with the blog for the latest on the ongoing severe weather, and refer to the Storm Prediction Center and your local NWS office for official watches and warnings.

…Brett Biebelberg