Relating back to my first post on this, both the NAM and the GFS have reached a consensus of painting lower 60’s dewpoints in the warm sector on Monday, in essence the middle point between extremities presented in my original post.

It seems that the main issue for this one will be lack of directional shear, and the continued possibility of moisture mixing out. Models have trended slightly weaker with the 500mb disturbance. SPC seems to have the right idea with a SEE TEXT on the Day 2 outlook, and I do not see anything higher than a low end SLGT risk to verify on Monday over the Southeast.

The next possible event looks to be around 9-10 days away, but there is plenty of time to watch that. As of right now it’s still in “possible threat” mode. More updates to come on this over the coming days as the models get a better hold over the system.